SGV/Whittier Prep Sports Zone: End Zone to End Zone, the Selection Sunday Edition
We take a deep dive into how the CIFSS Football Divisions were constructed, the five big winners from Sunday, 5 Things that I Think I Think about the football playoffs and much more.
(Photo: Taegan Maysami)
LOS ALAMITOS—There is a time in everyone’s life when we all know that Santa Claus is a fictitious character on Christmas Day. While it was fun when we were children, maturity kicks in, and we all know that the spirit of Santa Claus and the season of gifting keeps us excited about the holiday season.
This sums up CIF Southern Section Football “Selection Sunday” these days. If you do the work or follow someone who does it (we would like to think we are the most trusted voice regarding divisional projections), you should know what will take place when the brackets are put together.
That’s what happened on Sunday.
We can start at the top in Division 1. At the start of the day on Friday, word began to leak out that CIFSS officials were planning on capping the field for the D1 playoffs at 8. It wasn’t all that shocking, considering that Santa Margarita was a D1 #9 and was entering the week of a story from the Orange County Register that was less than pleasing.
A funny thing happened on Friday night—Santa Margarita manhandled Servite (44-8) and jumped to D1 #7, with Servite dropping to D1 #9. The question now became this: Do you keep D1 at 8 teams and have Servite on the outside looking in, or do a cap at ten and ensure all Trinity League teams are in D1?
The other part of the question was related to another team, Sherman Oaks Notre Dame. If CIF decided to go to an 8-team D1, the Knights (an At-Large team due to losing on the coin flip for Mission #3 representation) would have been on the outside looking in because their rating was lower than the projected 16 seed (Vista Murrieta) and higher than St. Bonaventure.
In divisional protocols, At-Large teams can’t be top-seeded in the subsequent lowest division. This becomes a very interesting call for sectional officials. Do you go to an 8-team D1 and leave out two teams with the requisite wins to be selected as an At-Large team (5 wins) with enormous fanbases and risk getting eviscerated by media and stakeholders? Or do you keep those teams in?
In the end, section officials capped D1 at ten teams, and everyone sighed in relief. Many (including this observer) felt ten was the correct number, meaning Servite was in, and Sherman Oaks Notre Dame would be in as a D3 #16.
Paid subscribers to our divisional projections were prepared for an 8 or 10-team D1, which meant that nothing was a surprise… at least at the top.
For a team like La Habra, instead of playing Cathedral on the road, they got a home game against Mira Costa, which plays a more physical style of football. For Bonita, instead of playing Tustin, they must take the trek to downtown LA and play Cathedral.
The bottom line was that transparency ruled the day in D2 and D3, and if you were an intelligent coach, you knew what was happening.
The first of several surprises came in D4 when Chaminade and Upland were not selected as At-Large teams. It turns out that those two schools were considered for seven AL spots that were given to Oxnard/Pacifica, Culver City, and Santa Barbara. It was surprising considering that Upland was a Baseline #4 and Chaminade was a Mission #5, residing in leagues that were perceived to be strong.
The message from CIFSS was clear on the Mission League – it was not a league with strength. And when you mix that in with the fact that they didn’t have the requisite five wins to be considered for an At-Large team, you can understand why they were not selected.
With Santa Barbara now considered a D2 #15, Orange Vista became a D2 #16, thus completing the D3 pod. Upland’s bubble burst with their loss to Chino Hills (17-12) and Pacifica/Oxnard and Culver City losing their respective coin flips for the final AQ in their leagues, thus taking those At-Large bids.
It became a numbers game and didn’t work out in favor of Upland and Chaminade, who were left on the outside looking in. We felt that Norco and Corona del Mar were not serious At-Large contenders, as did sectional officials.
That had a ripple effect as you went down the divisions. In D5, Bishop Diego had four wins and a tie, but they were left out, with Trabuco Hills, Foothill, and Western getting the AL bids. This also meant that Muir (which we had projected as a D6 #3) moved to the top of the seed line in D6.
This leads us to our first big surprise of the day. Since there were 12 AQs and the section decided to move Schurr over from D7 #1 to become a D6 #16, three teams were up for consideration for a spot in D6: Ayala (2-8, 0-5), Paraclete (3-7, 1-4), and Roosevelt/Eastvale (2-8, 0-5).
In the end, Ayala got the nod for the higher rating. For the average fan, just understand that the numbers game worked in favor of the Bulldogs and was the main reason they got picked and Upland didn’t.
For teams like Schurr, who spent most of the season in D7, their lopsided win over Bell Gardens and other teams' losses vaulted them into D6.
It was also a numbers game that got St. Pius X-St. Matthias and Cypress into the tournament. Since Long Beach Wilson and Santa Monica dropped from D8 into D9 and D8 was capped with Rancho Mirage as a #16, SPXSM and Cypress got into the tournament in D8. This is where I erred when trying to understand why those two teams made the tournament, and I apologize to section officials.
These days, competitive equity is all a numbers game.
The rest of the divisions offered little surprise. We knew that Sonora would make the playoffs as an AL team, and they did as a D9 #5, which placed them higher than media darling Covina (D9 #6).
In D10, section officials decided to cap the field with South Hills as a D10 #16, which meant 14 teams were considered for 3 AL spots. The spots were given to Shadow Hills (6-4), Brentwood (7-3), and Silverado (5-5).
The lesson from this year’s divisional selections is that it’s a numbers game. If you are on the wrong side of it, it’s a tough break. For teams such as Santa Fe, Wilson/Hacienda Heights, and Duarte, this could be the year they were on the right side of competitive equity.
CIFSS officials are looking for this and have repeatedly said it in various interviews. They want their membership schools to feel like they have an honest shot at winning a sectional title.
As for us, we didn’t shoot a 63 at the Masters, but we hit a pretty good score at Pebble Beach, and we hope you felt the same way. We aim to shoot a better round next year.
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BIGGEST AREA FOOTBALL WINNERS
Here are the five teams we feel were the biggest winners from selection Sunday.
(Photo: Arnold Leos Graphics)
1) Santa Fe (Del Rio #2, 7-3): When it comes to playoff football in the competitive equity era, teams like Santa Fe will always shine. The reason why is simple: with La Serna, the league class, and placed in a much higher division (D5), Santa Fe will not be facing a team in their playoff division with the firepower that La Serna has. It worked well for them last year as they made the semifinals, and it should work well for them again in 2024. Devin Clark is a 1,400-yard rusher. Teams that have a running back like this are very tough to beat. And speaks of the job that Ryan Bateman is doing at Santa Fe. He has the Chiefs on the right trajectory, and they could be rewarded with a sectional title in 2024.
2) South El Monte (Mission Valley #1, 7-3): No one, and I mean no one from the local media, has given the Eagles a serious look in 2024 – and that’s a mistake. Matthew Medina (104-168, 1,892 Yards, 24 TDs) might be the best area quarterback that you don’t know about. He can spin it with the best in the area, and this type of quarterback is extremely dangerous in this division. We are one win away from having a rematch between South El Monte and El Monte in the quarterfinals in D13. How much fun would that be?
3) Sonora (Iota #4 6-4): The Raiders showed that it pays to play a demanding nonleague schedule. The two teams that Sonora lost to early in the season were Brea Olinda (D5 #2) and Northwood (D6 #5) – two quality teams. When you also toss in their losses to Troy (D5) and El Toro (D7), you can see that they didn’t exactly play the weak sisters of the north this year. Sonora looked very impressive in their 28-20 win over Irvine, which helped them secure a spot in the Division 9 tournament. Brady Ackerman could be the one player that can take the Raiders to the semifinals.
4) Rio Hondo Prep (Gold Coast #1, 8-1): Here is a question for area football fans. What is the ceiling for this program? How you answer this question is how you perceive the strength of this team in the playoffs in 2024. All you need to know is that RHP rushed for over 400+ yards as a team two weeks ago against Brentwood. Opposing teams had better work on their run fits if they plan to play the Kares. I don’t think Ramona, Vista Del Lago, or ML King were excited to see the Kares in their 4-team pod in the D7 tournament.
5) Chino Hills (Baseline #2, 7-3): We are biased toward the Huskies. We tabbed them as one of our “Surprise Teams of 2024,” they have caught more than a few eyes this year. The defeated Rancho Cucamonga pushed Damien hard in Baseline league play and see a Cajon team that have more than a few questions that must be answered. Junior Alex Medyn has made the most of his transfer from Orange Lutheran, showing everyone he’s one of the better dual-threat QBs in D3. We can easily see Chino Hills taking on Edison in a semifinal.
5 THINGS THAT I THINK I THINK FROM THE CIFSS FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SELECTION SUNDAY
1) I think that Div. 2 appears to be very wide open in 2024. One of the main reasons is that there are no Trinity League teams, which would have lingered over this division. Several games have my interest. One of them is #15 San Jacinto (6-3) at #2 Newbury Park (10-0). SJ lost their season opener to Beaumont but defeated Culver City and Yorba Linda on the field (they had to forfeit wins), which must mean something. The Tigers must deal with Florida State commit Brady Smigiel, but we will find out how strong the Conejo Coast League is in 2024. Another game that interests me is #13 Beaumont at #4 San Juan Hills. Beaumont has been the talk of the IE this year, and SJH has been the talk of south OC. Something has to give here. Keep a sharp eye out for #12 Oak Hills at #5 Oaks Christian.
2) I think that the depth of talent makes Division 3 even more fun to watch. Let’s start at the top, where #16 SO Notre Dame has more than a puncher’s chance to upend #1 Simi Valley. Although SV got everyone’s attention with the win over Oaks Christian last week (which vaulted them to the top of the seed line in D3), we still have some questions about this team, and SO Notre Dame showed their perceived class in their win over Loyola last week on the road. The #9 Mira Costa at #8 La Habra is probably the most delicious matchup in the first round, and we are about to see if #12 Bonita can handle the speed and home-field advantage that #5 Cathedral has. It’s a compelling matchup. Then there is #4 Edison, which has Troy Thomas as their Defensive Coordinator – enough said.
3) I think we are about to see what kind of toughness area powers St. Paul (Angelus #2, 6-4) and Charter Oak (Sierra #2, 8-2) have in Division 4. The Chargers have a showdown with an Apple Valley (Mojave River #2, 6-3) team that is very stout at the line of scrimmage. This could be a 15-round heavyweight bout. St. Paul will host Thousand Oaks, a team that has been competing against the top teams in the 805 (Ventura, Agoura, Simi Valley, Newbury Park, and Santa Barbara). Don’t get me wrong, the Swordsmen have played teams such as Damien, Los Alamitos, and Servite, but this will be a fascinating game to watch on Friday.
Photo: Arnold Leos Photography
4) I think La Serna (Del Rio #1, 7-3) is poised to make another deep playoff run in Div. 5. Their most challenging game could be their opening-round affair with visiting Troy (Iota #1, 9-1) on Friday at Cal High. We are about to find out if the Iota League is as tough as it was meant to be, thanks to competitive equity. La Serna’s personnel questions at the start of the season have been rectified, and no coach can navigate the choppy playoff waters more than the great Andy George. He plays chess while many of his brethren play checkers. We are on track for a Huntington Beach (Epsilon #1) vs. La Serna matchup in the semifinals.
5) I think that of the area teams with a top-four seed, South Pasadena (Rio Hondo #1, 9-2) could be ripe for an upset. I don’t think the Rio Hondo League was very strong this year, and many have viewed the first-round opponent, Patriot (River Valley #3), in a very positive light. Calpreps has South Pasadena projected to win 28-21 but gives the Warriors a 35% chance of winning the game. I must put the Tigers on upset watch.
ONE STAT TO FOLLOW
Here are the top ten rated leagues in the Southern Section via Calpreps.
1. Trinity 78.8
2. Alpha 54.4
3. Big West Upper 44.3
4. Mission 41.9
5. Bravo 35.9
6. Baseline 33.5
7. Marmonte 33.3
8. Bay 31.9
9. Conejo Coast 26.7
10. Delta 26.1
FINALLY
It never ceases to amaze me how people are unable to be forward-thinking. They are stuck in the past and never want to join us in the 21st century.
One person on X told me that CIFSS should do away with leagues and have ten games. That doesn’t make any sense, of course, because you need to have league play to determine automatic qualifiers for the playoffs so you can construct playoff brackets. Plus, I can say this from a personal point of view: student-athletes still enjoy being called league champs.
Just ask anyone from Damien.
But the latest myth being perpetrated to fans is that teams should be rewarded with a home game if they win a league title. Never mind that maybe their league is not that good; let’s just give them a home game – since we are in a “let’s give everyone a trophy” era.
That type of thinking has also filtered into the thinking of area coaches. Steve Bogan, whom I still count on as a friend and whom I worked for seven years at South Hills, had a fascinating thought for Fred Robledo in a Sunday playoff story behind a paywall (sorry).
Bogan decided to “adjust to the way of today” and threw up his hands with the famous phrase, “It is what it is.”
Let me be the voice of those of us in the 21st century. The days of CIFSS playoff divisions being done by grouping leagues via geography have been dismantled as swiftly as technology has rendered the FAX machine obsolete.
Competitive Equity is here to stay. Teams are correctly viewed as their entity and are not penalized for being in a league with a vastly superior team (e.g., Moore League). This is why teams such as Sonora, Santa Fe, Baldwin Park, and others in lower divisions feel like they have a chance to win a sectional title.
To put it bluntly, they are playing teams of similar athletic prowess. The CIFSS membership voted for this playoff system with near unanimous consent, and it’s not about to change. I asked former CIFSS commissioner Rob Wigod, who green-lighted the real-time divisional placement years ago, what he would say to a team that wins a league title and is going on the road for the first round.
“My answer is simple: prove us wrong,” Wigod said in 2021.
And he’s right. Teams should develop the mindsight that Mark Carson has implemented at Rio Hondo Prep. He doesn’t have Bonita's student population nor the players with the talent level that Bonita has.
Instead of complaining, his team has developed a mindset that he had to have his teams ready to play other teams “in single division digits.”
He has done that with a bruising running game and a sound defense. It’s funny; no one in the local media has bothered to talk to Carson about his playoff philosophy… except for us.
Instead, they look to people like Bogan to validate their thinking that the CIFSS has a broken playoff system that needs to be fixed.
Competitive equity has been a winner for the area, in our opinion. How do I know this? The Mt. SAC Ad-Hoc Realignment Committee used the Calpreps rating averages to rebalance the leagues in the East SGV. Guess what happened?
In week 10, we had much closer league races with legitimate excitement, something we hadn’t seen in years. The Mt. SAC area pioneered this philosophy because other areas, such as Ventura and Orange County, saw what was done out here and developed a similar framework for their leagues.
And guess what happened? We had thrilling and competitive league races in those leagues as well.
Competitive Equity is here to stay. If you want to stay in the past, that’s your choice. But some of us have adapted and adjusted.
By the way, I got a message from Bonita co-head coach Bo Beatty on Saturday, who asked me who I thought they would play in the first round (“Since you picked it correctly last year.”). I told him they would play either Millikan (8-team D1) or Cathedral (10-team D1).
Guess who Bonita is playing on Friday – Cathedral.
I guess this “nut job” knows at least a thing or two… or tries.
Have a good week, and congrats to all that made the football playoffs.